Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 167.410976 202.067273 244.710237 301.959575 378.259522 4.786304e+02 6.244998e+02
2025-04-13 123.270445 161.581190 214.464550 295.641827 422.712621 6.249473e+02 9.975840e+02
2025-04-20 106.397770 148.571616 212.314902 321.751126 519.542012 8.983139e+02 1.801727e+03
2025-04-27 94.417970 138.448192 209.946659 344.631692 620.868196 1.251767e+03 3.236792e+03
2025-05-04 84.849582 129.392907 206.093641 362.437259 721.554360 1.693879e+03 5.841590e+03
2025-05-11 76.510580 120.424807 199.765467 372.664485 811.798390 2.210206e+03 1.054144e+04
2025-05-18 69.095814 111.582103 191.438705 375.579541 886.577299 2.782977e+03 1.909563e+04
2025-05-25 62.155580 102.406108 180.458345 368.842123 931.815006 3.326172e+03 3.358619e+04
2025-06-01 56.082424 93.931981 169.249023 358.165867 960.286450 3.863139e+03 5.968368e+04
2025-06-08 50.919751 86.495450 158.884681 346.697427 981.068436 4.426141e+03 1.115531e+05
2025-06-15 49.811339 86.791615 165.160806 381.691662 1199.829686 6.898247e+03 7.700582e+05
2025-06-22 46.685302 82.597440 160.605364 384.730021 1295.229656 8.859575e+03 7.000818e+06
2025-06-29 44.425657 80.078232 159.911066 400.810067 1476.230575 1.296124e+04 NaN
2025-07-06 41.174368 75.088534 152.498323 393.562718 1539.312515 1.623219e+04 NaN
2025-07-13 40.414604 75.361583 158.127452 432.339398 1914.102356 3.098409e+04 NaN
2025-07-20 39.384526 74.890342 161.782332 466.394679 2328.944034 6.224370e+04 NaN
2025-07-27 38.093260 73.653521 163.173958 493.047250 2755.481627 1.312449e+05 NaN
2025-08-03 36.515164 71.556011 161.815231 508.427490 3134.432414 2.805855e+05 NaN
2025-08-10 34.748123 68.813000 158.160429 512.821627 3432.366131 5.995709e+05 NaN
2025-08-17 32.746962 65.306577 151.748541 502.677233 3564.253230 1.118566e+06 NaN
2025-08-24 30.776414 61.699412 144.547033 486.653443 3608.399880 1.969179e+06 NaN
2025-08-31 28.954781 58.304278 137.542857 469.512319 3618.859467 3.534536e+06 NaN
2025-09-07 28.907779 59.300724 144.071558 522.047061 4794.697714 6.518806e+10 NaN